Is this hypocrisy? - DPChallenge Forums

Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 USM

01/27/2013 01:04:53 PM · #951

Originally posted by Ann:

Okay, before we all go around the bend with "what if" scenarios....I went and did some actual research. My neighborhood in central San Diego is considered a high crime neighborhood, with crime rates for every type of crime (except murder) that are significantly higher than the citywide average. Here are the actuals for 2012:

Population: 38,000
Total property crimes: 1,313
Total violent crimes: 183
Total murders: 0 (citywide there were 45)

Digging into the numbers for the nonviolent crimes further, about 1,200 of the property crimes were either car theft, car break ins(700!), vandalism (usually graffiti), or petty theft. There were about 30 residential burglaries.

Digging deeper into the violent crime stats, the reason the number is of crimes so high is because I live in a district with an extreme number of bars (more than double what is allowed by local laws), and the violent crime stats reflect a lot of bar fights, street fights, and street robberies of the bar patrons. Also, about 2/3 of the assault total is domestic violence. In a neighborhood with a population of 38,000, there were 3 residential robberies (one actual home invasion which made the news, then a drunk guy who spent one fruitless night trying to find a place to sleep, which also made the news), and about 20 assaults that happened in the residential part of the neighborhood that weren't listed as domestic. Of those 20, I found out the story on 10, and all 10 were by people that the victim knew.

So, anyway, my reading of the statistics was that, sooner or later, odds are that your car will get stolen and your back fence tagged, but if you keep your doors locked and are careful out walking near the bars at night, the odds of anything else happening are low.

The drunk guy probably tried our house too, but since we had the door locked, nothing happened. We found a vodka bottle in our back yard the next morning, and made the connection reading the news and talking to neighbors.

So my "plan for dealing with it" is, indeed, to do the common sense stuff, then not worry about it.

edit to add....In the one home invasion (the only home invasion that anyone around here can remember happening ever, btw) nobody got hurt. The bad guys came in, put the guy in a headlock, and demanded money. He didn't have any, so they took his laptop and ran.

I agree that one has to have perspective and a realistic assessment of objectively how dangerous the place is where you live. Looking at actual crime rates for your neighborhood is a good thing to do. I don't actually expect that I'll be a victim based on where I'm living now -- there is virtually no crime of any sort here, other than domestic violence, and the occasional (very occasional) break-in that occurs on the lake about 5 miles up the road. But I've lived in very unsafe neighborhoods in D.C., in New York City, and shit happens. One of the worst experiences I had (and I was only a witness) was the murder of the local drug dealer who got gunned down in a drive-by shooting at 7a.m. as I was walking to the bus stop, only paces away from where I was walking; this was in D.C. And other stuff, the details of which I won't go into, where I was the victim or the intended victim. I realize now that when I moved to my present location 12 years ago, I brought with me a kind of "fear hangover" that's very difficult to dispel. As I said, I still feel compelled to practice my "escape" and fortify my home even though I know objectively that it's probably not necessary.

RayEthier

Canon EOS-5D Mark II

01/27/2013 01:12:35 PM · #952

Originally posted by David Ey:

...etc,etc. So my "plan for dealing with it" is, indeed, to do the common sense stuff, then not worry about it."

Apply this test to school shootings please, and post your results.

David, surely you can appreciated that you are trying to get her to compare road apples to truffles. Both can be brown and have a distinct odour, but to my knowledge that is where the similarities end.

A more equitable comparison might be the results where guns were present in the school verses those where there weren't, and clearly demonstrate that the mere presence of guns stopped all attacks.

You seem to be the person advocating more guns, perhaps it would be best if you provided that data.

Ray

Message edited by author 2013-01-28 05:24:29.

cowboy221977

Canon EOS-60D

Canon EF-S 10-22mm f/3.5-4.5 USM

01/27/2013 04:57:28 PM · #953

This speaks for itself

Flash

Nikon D700

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 17-35mm f/2.8D IF-ED

01/27/2013 10:10:50 PM · #954

Originally posted by NikonJeb:

Originally posted by Flash:
Understanding the Judicious use of force is to me - primary for anyone choosing to own firearms or preparing for the defensive use of force. It is covered in its basics in CCW classes but it truly should be understood more completely. The parameters to use deadly force (per the law) is extremely restrictive and the consequences for violating those narrow parameters are very serious. To read some of the comments like "shoot first ask questions later", or "rack a round to scare them", or "shooting someone for a property crime", or "dragging a shot intruder inside your home before the cops arrive", or "I'd rather be judged by 12 than carried by 6", these are examples of ignorance.

To say that a "Policeman told me something" as if to imply that because he is an LEO that he actually knows the law is sadly ignorant as well. I have known many many officers who did not know the law reagrding the judicious use of force. Some of those officers are in prison today because they acted inappropriately. Same for civilians. What some have posted here is clearly in violation of the law - if they ever actually acted as they have posted they would.

Your point, I think is that the posted ignorance would have dire consequences - both in the potential loss of innocent life and the conviction of the person that survived. I think we are dicussing the same event and outcome, just you emphasised the before (or during the shooting) while my focus was on the aftermath (the responding officers, the investigation and the judicial process)as that is where my specific training and teaching is focused. Anyone (whether a grizzled LEO or a hyped adrenlin stoked civilian) can make a poor choice. Knowing the consequence of a poor choice in my view greatly tempers the chance of that. Realizing that even a "JUSTIFIED" shooting in self defense may easily cost you a quarter of a million dollars or more - kind of puts a damper on the "wild west" mindset often suggested and portrayed by those concerned about us gun owners. In every class I have taught, I strongly emphasize the force continuum and the escalation process. Deadly force is on the very last rung and reserved for ONLY the IMMINENT/immediate threat of DEATH or GRAVE/crippling injury to oneself or those under your immediate protection.

The color codes of awareness White, Yellow, Orange, Red, Black, Grey are one method to help taech force escalation. Avoidance is always preferred - whether it is making yourself/home/family a harder target by attitude, posture, alertness to surroundings, locks (deadbolts), alarms, dogs, etc. The best advice I can give over the internet for anyone who is considering a firearm for self defense or has one currently - is to read In the Gravest Extreme.

Okay......if I understand you correctly, and extrapolate some, there are quite a few gun owners out there who could be construed as dangerous simply because of this information above.

What would you suggest as a way to have all of this be common knowledge, and would you think it would be a good idea to try to factor it in, in some manner, to gun ownership?

It honestly sounds like with you having this type of knowledge, you should be more scared of some gun owners than I.

lol ;-)
in some cases I am.

Education and training is certainly the best course. The NRA has for decades been at the forefront of this, however too many (in my view) do not acknowledge that nor utilyze the information. Their Eddie the Eagle program is an excellant primer for school children (with zero mention of the NRA nor its politics) but due to zealous anti-gun policies in some communities, this needed information doesn't get presented. It really is too bad. Research is available to nearly everyone in this computer age and even for those without access to home computers, there are public libraries. So personally, I see no excuse for anyone - gun owner or not - to not avail themselves of the kinds of information that is useful. The problem I have seen with mandating training is the "pass" rate. Meaningful testing requires both good teachers/instructors and students prepared to learn. Too many "know it alls" show up for a mandated class, pay their money, have had a police officer friend or some gun forum or some buddies - give them dangerous legal advice - and then take precious class time presenting these ludicrous wifes tales and ecah one has to be demonstrated as bad. Hollywood has done a grave disservice to the general knowledge of firearms - meaning the way guns are held with one hand under the grip or fingers inside the trigger guard or racking a round into a slide or the portrayal of fully automaic fire or... or.. or...its just stupid the things that people believe to be true based on having seen it hundreds of times done wrong in the movies.

Yes there are some gun owners out here that frighten me. I try on forums like these to educate with suggestions to read books like In the Gravest Extreme. I use as my avatar a reminder of the color codes of awareness White, Yellow, Orange, Red, Black and Grey to help signify the escalation process. I am open with my advice regarding training and avenues to get it (including the NRA) - however many serious firearms owners do avail themselves of this training. There are many civilians who are engaged in the lawful use of force and understand full well the consequences of unlawful force. Unfortunately, just as there are drivers every day I think should not be on public roadways and place me and mine at risk of death or injury, zooming in and out of traffic, texting, talking on the phone, etc. there are some firearms owners that in my view could use a serious refresher. That doesn't mean to me that we confiscate their guns protected by law, instead it is simply more of an opportunity to teach and educate.

Those that do have CCW's (aka CPL's) are required in every state (except Vermont) to get training on these kinds of topics. Typically a Judge or lawyer teaches the "use of force" section with the safety portion and range time being overseen by certified firearm instructors. As with any training (from chef school to photography) the instructor can make a big difference in what the students learn. Some of this responsibility actually belongs on the student. If you are not getting enough information, then there are resources out there - like Massad Ayoob or a host of other experts in the firearms field. The NRA is a good starting place.

Flash

Nikon D700

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 17-35mm f/2.8D IF-ED

01/27/2013 11:16:31 PM · #955

Originally posted by Judith Polakoff:

Originally posted by Flash:

Originally posted by Judith Polakoff:
I wonder if the folks who want guns for self-defense and protection in the home have sought advice from security experts about the many other things you can do to protect yourself in the home? My impression is that focusing on the gun can create a false sense of security such that you may overlook preventive steps that will discourage the bad guys from targeting you and/or your home in the first place.

1. You will never stop crime - you can only help encourage it to go somewhere else.
2. Unlocked doors and windows are the easiest way in. Lock you doors and windows.
3. Dogs over 50 pounds have a proven track record as both a deterrant and an alarm. Plus they give unconditionally and can be sacrificed to "go search" if there are "noises" in the night.
4. Place Alarm stickers on your windows near entry doors. Doesn't matter if you really have an alarm or not - just don't tell anyone if you don't. One neighbor will tell the whole neighborhood and soon the criminals will know through a friend of a friend of a friend.
5. Deadbolt locks on all exterior doors. Even the garage if it has a side/rear entry door.
6. Door restraints. Masterlock makes a rod/pole (about $20). [exterior doors and saferoom should have one]
7. Communication within arms reach at all times. Cell phone or land line.
8. If OC spray is part of your defense system - have it be a thumb activated style rather than a finger activated style. The thumb activated style positions the canister in your hand in a position of strength (fist) rather than one of weakness (like hairspray). State laws vary regarding the concentration amounts allowed for civilians to USE (not necessarily possession but USE). Just because a local store sells it does not mean it meets state law for use. Meaning you could be sued for excessive force and using an illegal substance if you used a concentration greater than that allowed by your state. Typically Police are allowed a higher concentration. Know the law for your state.
9. If firearms are a part of your plan, then get training in their use and safe storage. Document your training and keep a journal of your training as this may be evidence you need to support your actions.
10. Police do not know the law just because they are in law enforcement. They know what they do everyday. Judicious use of force requires training from those who specialize in that particular area. In the Gravest Extreme is a excellant primer for anyone deciding to include a firearm in their personal plan.

eta: understanding the force continuum goes a long way in preparing for lifes daily encounters and some of her not so daily confrontations.

Yes, and I'd add that you should have a plan of escape, or a place to hide if it comes to that. Where I live now, I've practiced (and I practice at least once a year) going out the window in each and every room, even the rooms upstairs where I have to also practice getting off the roof and down to the ground. After some narrow (and harrowing) escapes from imminent assault, I've done this in every place I've lived over the last two decades, AND I've taken most of the security precautions that you enumerated above. But I won't have a gun in the house for all the reasons that have been discussed, and because I'm one of those "jumpy" people. When the adrenaline starts pumping, I would definitely shoot first and ask questions later, and I don't want to be in that position.

Also, I agree with Jeb that the best possible thing you can do is MOVE if you're living in an area that's just objectively unsafe. Life is too short to waste it feeling threatened all the time.

Good points about the practice. Firearms are not for everyone and I do not advocate that everyone should own one. I also concur that the "need" for one is statistically low for many parts of the country and for a vast part of the population.

It does read a bit elitist to me to suggest that folks in high crime areas can just move. I would submit that most cannot afford to move or they already would have. The empty homes in the inner city of Flint are exactly that. As in most cities, jobs keep a number of people in an area. More affluent neighborhoods are typically only a short ride from the city and criminals go where the bounty is. Once poverty and crime infest an area, it creeps outward slowly growing and consuming more and more area as people flee - those that can afford to. Others are left behind to face the new reality of daily life - drugs and gangs.

There are many things people can do to reduce their potential for victimization. Awareness is at the forefront of that. Regardless, your first or next flat tire can happen at any time - even when you are paying attention to where you are driving.

RayEthier

Canon EOS-5D Mark II

Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 USM

01/28/2013 12:33:31 AM · #956

Originally posted by Flash:

There are many things people can do to reduce their potential for victimization. Awareness is at the forefront of that. Regardless, your first or next flat tire can happen at any time - even when you are paying attention to where you are driving.

Wholly agree with the awareness part.... regarding the flat tire, I have been know to drive on rims in certain situations... but that's just me. (Mind you, tactical driving courses prepare you for most situations) :O)

Have a great day.

Ray

Spork99

Canon EOS R8

Canon RF 16mm F2.8 STM

01/28/2013 04:14:29 AM · #957

Originally posted by NikonJeb:

Originally posted by Spork99:
Then enlighten us Oh Great One. What is your plan for dealing with that kind of situation? You wake up and hear someone in your house...You call 911. You have 20-30 minutes before the cops arrive. You hear steps coming towards the bedroom

Originally posted by NikonJeb:
Like I have said, and Bear, and many others, it's been stated that most of us are quite unlikely to have to deal with such a situation. I don't spend a lot of time contemplating "what ifs".

I certainly know I wouldn't want to have to live with taking someone's life no matter what the circumstances, and your postulations don't worry me in the slightest. Home invasions where I live are virtually unheard of, and where I live, to my knowledge there haven't even been burglaries, though I don't spend much time perusing police reports. Since you truly have no way of knowing what the police response is likely to be here, I really don't care to bother with your scenario.

I'm willing to have faith in the hopes that it's so unlikely to happen that I won't worry about it.

Like I said previously, I chose an area to live where guns, drugs, crime, and violence are *not* part of my normal daily life. Why anyone would live in such an area is beyond me.

I guess I'd just have to say to you the same thing I say to the people that live along the river here when it overflows its banks by ten feet every decade or so. Why would you live there *knowing* that sooner or later it's going to happen to you?

Yes, I might be killed in a home invasion, but it's statistically highly improbable.

Originally posted by Spork99:
So basically, you just hope it won't happen to you.

Hope's not a strategy.

Eureka! I do believe you've *finally* grasped it!

I've emboldened the part above........this would be the part that clued you in, right?

You got it! I don't have a *strategy*. I don't live somewhere that dictates that, just as I don't have a strategy for volcanoes, tornadoes, or asteroid damage.

Life is obviously much kinder and gentler where I live. I'm guessing that explains a lot about your generally miserable disposition.

A home invasion or armed assault/robbery is not part of anyone's "normal" life, yet it happens to people all the time. A house fire is not part of "normal" life either, so I assume you have no plan for that either. How about an extended power outage? Natural disaster? Do you also leave your doors unlocked? Statistically, you're more likely to forget your key than to have an unwanted someone come into your house.

Life is very kind and gentle in a lot of places, yet tragedy strikes there too.

You can stick your fingers in your ears and sing "It won't happen to me." if you like, but if and when it does... you'll wish you had given it some thought.

I just have a low tolerance the kind of stupidity you seem to possess in abundance. It's the people like you who are the first to ask if you can hook your fridge up to my generator when the power goes out or don't have a plan for what to do in case of a fire, so a fireman has to risk his life by going into your burning house to rescue you from your own lack of preparation. You're the kind of person who goes out for a day hike on a trail and gets lost when it gets dark. Nothing looks familiar so you wander around blindly and you die because you weren't carrying any of the 10 essentials with you. Then when you've gone missing, some lucky SAR tech gets to discover your frozen corpse. All because you said, "Nothing like that could ever happen to me, according to the statistics."

Luck favors the prepared.

Message edited by author 2013-01-28 10:12:01.

David Ey

Nikon D80

Nikon AF Micro-Nikkor 60mm f2.8D

01/28/2013 06:35:53 AM · #958

Very well said spork.

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 28-300mm f3.5-5.6G ED VR

01/28/2013 06:46:29 AM · #959

Originally posted by Spork99:

Life is very kind and gentle in a lot of places, yet tragedy strikes there too.

You can stick your fingers in your ears and sing "It won't happen to me." if you like, but if and when it does... you'll wish you had given it some thought.

I just have a low tolerance the kind of stupidity you seem to possess in abundance. It's the people like you who are the first to ask if you can hook your fridge up to my generator when the power goes out or don't have a plan for what to do in case of a fire, so a fireman has to risk his life by going into your burning house to rescue you from your own lack of preparation. You're the kind of person who goes out for a day hike on a trail and gets lost when it gets dark. Nothing looks familiar so you wander around blindly and you die because you weren't carrying any of the 10 essentials with you. Then when you've gone missing, some lucky SAR tech gets to discover your frozen corpse. All because you said, "Nothing like that could ever happen to me, according to the statistics."

Luck favors the prepared.

I've always liked "luck is the residue of design", myself. Either way, it's very true. But I think you're being overly harsh on Jeb. I've met the man, and he's very intelligent and capable. I'd be happy to have him at my side when weathering a natural disaster. I don't think it's fair to intuit, from his stance on firearms, that he follows the grasshopper gospel, any more than you should intuit the same from me.

We just don't happen to agree that for OUR lives, in OUR locations, setting up our dwellings as armed fortresses is necessary or even desirable.

NikonJeb

Nikon D850

01/28/2013 07:34:54 AM · #960

Originally posted by Spork99:

I just have a low tolerance the kind of stupidity you seem to possess in abundance. It's the people like you who are the first to ask if you can hook your fridge up to my generator when the power goes out or don't have a plan for what to do in case of a fire, so a fireman has to risk his life by going into your burning house to rescue you from your own lack of preparation. You're the kind of person who goes out for a day hike on a trail and gets lost when it gets dark. Nothing looks familiar so you wander around blindly and you die because you weren't carrying any of the 10 essentials with you. Then when you've gone missing, some lucky SAR tech gets to discover your frozen corpse. All because you said, "Nothing like that could ever happen to me, according to the statistics."

Luck favors the prepared.

You're truly a scream, man! Just because I don't choose to be an armed vigilante with a happy trigger finger a la Shoot-'em-Up Spork, I must be stupid and unprepared. Yes, that must be me.

I don't have fire extinguishers carefully placed in my house or have them regularly inspected and serviced. I also don't understand the basic principle that first and foremost, a fire extinguisher is supposed to help you get out of a burning structure, not really to fight the fire.

I can't diagnose, unclog, and service the entire furnace in the basement, I don't have a free-standing wood stove and a woodpile outside.

I can't work on plumbing, solder pipes, hook up appliances, tap in accessories, or repair/replace hot water heaters.

I can't pour concrete and shore up a crumbling foundation at the corner of an old house, replace rotten floor joists, rehang a door, or any kind of carpentry. And I certainly can't mix concrete on the ground because I'm somewhere you could never drag a cement mixer.

There isn't a creek right across the back yard, and I don't have five gallon buckets so I can flush the toilets and drink, cook, & wash.

I don't have a chainsaw in my trunk if I need to get home, or out somewhere after storms come through and take trees down which is typical of where I live.

I don't have fridge and freezer space accessible, and lesser quantities in my deep freeze so I can use it both as a cooler and to feed me.

I don't have a large dog as an early warning system that something's amiss.

I don't have an extra car in case one of the regular cars we have goes down or something happens to it.

Can't tear apart a seized washing machine and fix it. Can't fix cars, either.

I've never been involved in dealing with floods, debilitating blizzards, the first one on the scene of a bad car accident, or any one of a number of things that require cool decisions and sensible actions.

Certainly don't have tools, knives, propane torches, flashlights, duct tape, steel wire, ropes, first aid supplies, or any of those things around.

I don't work in a John Deere dealer where I have access to generators, backhoes, skidloaders, and other various equipment.

Yep, I am without question every bit as stupid, incompetent, and inept as you make me out to be. You da man......you know all about who I am, and what I'm capable of, don't you?

Oh, yeah......almost forgot. I don't generally get lost as I can navigate by both the sun and the stars, plus having spent a great deal of my life both in the woods, and on the road traveling in places I've never been, because exploring happens to be a hobby of mine. And though you can't always count on a cell phone, I do have one with the service provider that has the best coverage in the rural areas I live and travel, and I make sure that I keep the charge up.

What I generally *don't* do is to assume that the other guy knows nothing and/or couldn't possibly have more on the ball than I. Just because someone thinks differently than me about how he lives his life doesn't make him stupid, just different.

Like I said before, I wonder what it is that makes you such a miserable human being.

Spork99

Canon EOS R8

Canon RF 16mm F2.8 STM

01/28/2013 07:50:06 AM · #961

Originally posted by Bear_Music:

Originally posted by Spork99:
Life is very kind and gentle in a lot of places, yet tragedy strikes there too.

You can stick your fingers in your ears and sing "It won't happen to me." if you like, but if and when it does... you'll wish you had given it some thought.

I just have a low tolerance the kind of stupidity you seem to possess in abundance. It's the people like you who are the first to ask if you can hook your fridge up to my generator when the power goes out or don't have a plan for what to do in case of a fire, so a fireman has to risk his life by going into your burning house to rescue you from your own lack of preparation. You're the kind of person who goes out for a day hike on a trail and gets lost when it gets dark. Nothing looks familiar so you wander around blindly and you die because you weren't carrying any of the 10 essentials with you. Then when you've gone missing, some lucky SAR tech gets to discover your frozen corpse. All because you said, "Nothing like that could ever happen to me, according to the statistics."

Luck favors the prepared.

I've always liked "luck is the residue of design", myself. Either way, it's very true. But I think you're being overly harsh on Jeb. I've met the man, and he's very intelligent and capable. I'd be happy to have him at my side when weathering a natural disaster. I don't think it's fair to intuit, from his stance on firearms, that he follows the grasshopper gospel, any more than you should intuit the same from me.

We just don't happen to agree that for OUR lives, in OUR locations, setting up our dwellings as armed fortresses is necessary or even desirable.

Who said anything about an armed fortress? The gun is simply the last line of defense in my security plan. It's not the first option or even the second. Using lethal force is the absolute last resort, but I'm prepared to do so if pushed that far. Again, simply saying, "Statistically, it won't happen to me, so I don't even consider it." is not the mantra of intelligence and capability.

If a gun isn't part of your plan, assuming you have one, what is your plan?

I have lots of other plans and procedures for what to do when things go wrong, even as I hope they won't. I choose to be prepared. I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, because I know what it's like to wake up with an intruder in the house. I know what it's like to have your home rendered uninhabitable by a natural disaster and be without for an extended period. I know bad things do happen and that the people who are prepared for them will fare the best.

I don't plan to get stranded/injured/lost in the back country, but I make damn sure to carry the things I need to survive a minimum of 72 hr. Statistically, it's highly unlikely that I will ever need to do so and my pack would be that much lighter and easier to carry without that stuff, but I still take it.

Simply deciding that something is "unlikely" doesn't mean that it won't happen. For your sake, I hope you're right, and if something does happen that the police get there to save you before you or your loved ones are harmed.

cowboy221977

Canon EOS-60D

Canon EF-S 10-22mm f/3.5-4.5 USM

01/28/2013 09:06:07 AM · #962

man it has gotten a little heated in here. Jeb is not "stupid" for not owning or endorsing firearms. Neither is Robert. We tend to disagree on many points dealing with firearms. Spork, just because someone has a different opinion does not mean stupidity.

GeneralE

Canon PowerShot S3 IS

Canon 12x IS USM (S3 IS built-in Lens) -- 36-432mm (35mm EQ)

01/28/2013 09:53:24 AM · #963

Originally posted by cowboy221977:

... just because someone has a different opinion does not mean stupidity.

That much we can agree on ... :-)

01/28/2013 10:40:14 AM · #964

Originally posted by cowboy221977:

This speaks for itself

It might speak for itself, but I don't know what it's saying.

01/28/2013 11:02:17 AM · #965

Originally posted by Spork99:

Originally posted by NikonJeb:

Yep, I am without question every bit as stupid, incompetent, and inept as you make me out to be.

That much we can agree on.

I'm wondering whether it's even CONCEIVABLE that the Sporkster has missed to dripping sarcasm of Jeb's post, and is unaware, despite mine and Jeb's input, that Jeb's actually pretty high on the list of people-in-DPC-worth-throwing-your-lot-in-with in the event of a massive, inescapable, clusterf*ck of a disaster?

Message edited by author 2013-01-28 16:08:09.

FourPointX

Canon EOS-60D

Canon EF 50mm f/1.8 II

01/28/2013 11:09:11 AM · #966

i speculate that robert might be upset i've never seen him typo quite that much in such a short post.

Tamron SP 24-70mm f/2.8 Di VC USD Canon Mount

01/28/2013 11:11:31 AM · #967

Originally posted by FourPointX:

i speculate that robert might be upset i've never seen him typo quite that much in such a short post.

You speculate correctly.

Mike

Canon EOS-5D Mark II

01/28/2013 11:16:43 AM · #968

Originally posted by Spork99:

If a gun isn't part of your plan, assuming you have one, what is your plan?

I have lots of other plans and procedures for what to do when things go wrong, even as I hope they won't. I choose to be prepared. I hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, because I know what it's like to wake up with an intruder in the house. I know what it's like to have your home rendered uninhabitable by a natural disaster and be without for an extended period. I know bad things do happen and that the people who are prepared for them will fare the best.

I don't plan to get stranded/injured/lost in the back country, but I make damn sure to carry the things I need to survive a minimum of 72 hr. Statistically, it's highly unlikely that I will ever need to do so and my pack would be that much lighter and easier to carry without that stuff, but I still take it.

Simply deciding that something is "unlikely" doesn't mean that it won't happen. For your sake, I hope you're right, and if something does happen that the police get there to save you before you or your loved ones are harmed.

i'm sure you have a fallout shelter too? if you dont then your argument falls flat on its face, becuase you seem to want to be prepared for every scenario even those that are statistically unlikely.

just say that having a gun makes you feel safe. there is no need to throw around silly scenarios of statistical risk.

you need to own a gun to feel safe, not everyone else does.

Nikon AF-S Nikkor 28-300mm f3.5-5.6G ED VR

01/29/2013 09:24:24 AM · #969

And we are back alive :-) It's a miracle!

NikonJeb

Nikon D850

01/29/2013 11:16:58 AM · #970

Originally posted by Judith Polakoff:

That's pretty much how I am. My knowledge, interests, and preparations are all applied with common sense and to applicable scenarios.

I can catch and kill a poisonous snake easily and safely. I live where there are snakes......as a matter of fact, there are black snakes that come into the basement in the summer months. But.....if you have black snakes, you don't have poisonous ones. Relevant home knowledge.

I don't have preparations for floods, but since I do live relatively near the Susquehanna river that floods badly every decade or so and wipes out thousands of families, homes, etc, I am experienced in dealing with floods.

I do have power, food, and storm damage preparations.....I live in a rural area where storms take down trees and power lines. I also know where and who people are who help out and have equipment and supplies to deal with "normal" catastrophes. That's from having lived here my whole life and having taken part in rebuilding after floods.

Personally, I live on top of a hill.......WTF, people? WHY would you live on a flood plain????

I think mindset is an important aspect of how to deal with unexpected real-life scenarios as well. If you can work well with people, first off, and work well with crisis responders, even better, and people know who you are and what you can do, you have infinitely more peace of mind.

In my mind, crisis, disaster, accidents, and the aftermath are a lot easier to deal with as a village rather than as an individual. There aren't so many people traveling around where I live, and there are a lot of long term residents. It's not unusual for people to touch base with a neighbor if they see something amiss. Not that there are a bunch of nosey people in everyone's business, but if someone sees a stranger parked in a field where they don't belong, it will probably be duly noted. I always have time to help a neighbor, and I feel they are there for me as well.

For the record.........most of my neighbors have guns. I kinda doubt that I'd call any for their use of them, unless there was something like a rabid raccoon, or a deer badly injured in the road and the driver took off.

I also am 100% in favor of deer hunting. We have managed to kill, drive off, or inhabit the natural homes of the deer's predators. Last time I looked, deer cause upwards of 11 million dollars a year in damages to cars, people, farms, and they also starve in some areas of the state.

Besides......I *love* venison!

Ann

Olympus OM-D E-M1

Olympus 12-40mm f/2.8 Pro

01/29/2013 11:19:03 AM · #971

Yay, we're back!

Originally posted by Bear_Music:

Originally posted by David Ey:
quote Ann:...."Okay, before we all go around the bend with "what if" scenarios....I went and did some actual research. My neighborhood in central San Diego is considered a high crime neighborhood, with crime rates for every type of crime (except murder) that are significantly higher than the citywide average. Here are the actuals for 2012: .......etc,etc. So my "plan for dealing with it" is, indeed, to do the common sense stuff, then not worry about it."

Apply this test to school shootings please, and post your results.

98,817 public schools in the US. I don't know how many private schools. 10 incidents of shootings in schools in 2012. 3 of the 10 involved students shooting themselves and nobody else, 2 of the incidents were on school grounds but outside and appear to be gang related. Several of these incidents occurred on college/university campuses, for whatever that's worth.

One of the things I do for a living (in a different context) is risk management. Basically, you look at all of the possible things that can go wrong in a situation, what the probability is, and what the consequences are, then decide whether or not to mitigate the risk somehow (there's never a way to totally eliminate risk), insure against it, or accept it. In the case of mass shootings, the consequences of a mass shooting are very high (multiple deaths), but the probability of it happening is extremely low, lower than many of the more common risks that school districts accept every day. Since mass shootings are so heinous, I personally would work within the legal system to try to enact some of the laws that worked to eliminate mass shootings in Australia. But if I were in charge of security for a particular school or school district, the probability of a mass shooting is so low that I wouldn't try to do anything specific to mitigate that particular risk, beyond the more general school safety and security measures that are already common.

Some interesting stats related to school safety:

The two most common causes of death in kids ages 5-19 are shootings and traffic accidents (in about equal numbers), but virtually none of those are related in any way to school. Somewhere around 5,000 kids are killed by guns each year, but only 30-50 of these shootings happen at school. School buses are also apparently quite a bit safer than private cars, but the statistics are complicated, and I don't understand them well enough to explain them. So I won't. About 40% of deaths in kids from 5-19 are either shootings or traffic accidents.

Apparently the only risk that's higher at school than at home is the risk of catching an infectious disease.

Ann

Olympus OM-D E-M1

Olympus 12-40mm f/2.8 Pro

01/29/2013 11:26:17 AM · #972

Originally posted by cowboy221977:

This speaks for itself

Yes, it does speak for itself, but what it says is that the murder rate in Washington, DC spiked at the same time that the crack cocaine epidemic spiked.

Ann

Olympus OM-D E-M1

Olympus 12-40mm f/2.8 Pro

01/29/2013 11:44:38 AM · #973

Originally posted by Spork99:

Again, simply saying, "Statistically, it won't happen to me, so I don't even consider it." is not the mantra of intelligence and capability.

There are three things you can do for any risk. Attempt to mitigate it, insure it, or accept it. In addition, there are multiple ways to mitigate a risk. I personally mitigate the risk of an intruder in my home by other means (good locks, lights, dog, personal awareness, etc), and I have the full set of insurance (life, health, home, liability). The problem with using a gun to mitigate a rare risk like we're talking about is that guns create a whole new set of risks with the same basic consequences and a higher probability of occurrence. So from my perspective as someone who's just trying to mitigate risk in a sensible way, having a gun just makes things worse.

01/29/2013 12:14:44 PM · #974

Originally posted by Ann:

Originally posted by Spork99:

Again, simply saying, "Statistically, it won't happen to me, so I don't even consider it." is not the mantra of intelligence and capability.

There are three things you can do for any risk. Attempt to mitigate it, insure it, or accept it. In addition, there are multiple ways to mitigate a risk. I personally mitigate the risk of an intruder in my home by other means (good locks, lights, dog, personal awareness, etc), and I have the full set of insurance (life, health, home, liability). The problem with using a gun to mitigate a rare risk like we're talking about is that guns create a whole new set of risks with the same basic consequences and a higher probability of occurrence. So from my perspective as someone who's just trying to mitigate risk in a sensible way, having a gun just makes things worse.

Thank you for that! This is the thing that I think is driving some of us a little crazy here, that the point of having a gun in the home for many people is to diminish risk, but at the same time it's introducing a greater risk that some folks are denying.